China's crude oil imports surged in July, rising 29 percent from a year earlier, triggering market speculation that the rise was fueled by a rapid economic recovery in China that may push up international crude oil prices in the coming months. But this is actually a misunderstanding. The surge was mainly a result of oil stockpiling, and is unlikely to significantly affect international oil prices.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, overseas purchases of crude oil by China rose to 30.71 million tons in July, registering a second consecutive month in which crude oil imports saw year-on-year growth of over 25 percent.

The surge in overseas purchases was not a result of a decline in domestic crude oil production. Official data showed that China's crude oil output rose 1.7 percent year-on-year in the first half, and production is unlikely to be cut significantly.

China's crude oil imports surpassed those of the US in April, making it the world's largest oil importer, according to Xinhua News Agency. Some analysts suggested that China's rising crude oil imports point to fast-growing demand, which could indicate an economic recovery that might further push up international crude oil prices.

But in my opinion, this is not the case, at least not up to this point of time, as the surge in oil imports was not caused by rising demand. First, media reports said that China refined 235.34 million tons of crude oil in the first half of 2015, up just 3.6 percent year-on-year, suggesting that demand for crude oil in China has not risen sharply in recent months.

Second, although there are signs of stabilization in the Chinese economy, some heavy industries still face the problem of overcapacity and industrial demand for oil products is still weak. Official data showed the manufacturing purchasing manager's index (PMI), a key measure of factory activity in China, shrank to 50.0 in July, and the weak manufacturing activity implies lower demand growth for fuel.

Meanwhile, China's auto market contracted in May as sales declined for the second consecutive month, falling 4.55 percent month-on-month to 1.9 million units according to Xinhua News Agency, and a weaker automobile market will not help to push up fuel sales in the country.

In my opinion, the surge in China's crude oil imports was mainly a result of oil stockpiling prompted by lower oil prices, so the rise will not be sustainable. According to media reports, China's commercial crude oil stocks rose 1.28 percent in May month-on-month, and the growth trend might continue in subsequent months as crude oil prices remain weak.

Meanwhile, although China does not regularly make official announcements about the country's strategic petroleum reserve (SPR), media reports have showed the link between crude oil imports and the country's SPR plan. Bloomberg said in a recent report that China's crude imports rose as it began filling the second phase of emergency reserves in the eastern city of Qingdao. Oil imports may climb further in the third quarter from the previous three months as another storage site in the southern Chinese city of Huizhou is scheduled to open.

According to media reports, China started to pile up strategic oil reserves in December 2007 by setting up the China National Petroleum Reserve Center, which planned a three-phase construction program for oil reserve bases. Construction of the second phase commenced in September 2010, and the third phase's construction plan is due to be completed in 2020.

But in any case, the total volume for oil stockpiling will still be limited and is unlikely to have a big impact on the global crude oil market. The growth rate for China's crude oil imports is expected to be maintained at a more ordinary level of around 10 percent year-on-year for the whole of 2015.

The author is director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University.