【篇名】：Forecasting natural gas supply in china: Production peak and import trends

【作者】：Boqiang Lin; Ting Wang

【作者单位】：厦门大学中国能源经济研究中心

【文献出处】：Energy Policy, October 2012

【关键词】：Peak gas; Logistic and Gaussian curves; China's net import of gas

【摘要】：China's natural gas consumption has increased rapidly in recent years making China a net gas importer. As a nonrenewable energy, the gas resource is exhaustible. Based on the forecast of this article, China's gas production peak is likely to approach in 2022. However, China is currently in the industrialization and urbanization stage, and its natural gas consumption will persistently increase. With China's gas production peak, China will have to face a massive expansion in gas imports. As the largest developing country, China's massive imports of gas will have an effect on the international gas market. In addition, as China's natural gas price is still controlled by the government and has remained at a low level, the massive imports of higher priced gas will exert great pressure on China's gas price reform.